2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary

January 23, 2024

22 Republican National Convention delegates

The 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary will be held on January 23, 2024,[1] as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 22 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention will be allocated on a proportional basis.[2] The New Hampshire primary will be the second contest in the nation, held after the Iowa caucus.

Background

Donald Trump won the 2016 New Hampshire Republican primary with 35.2% of the vote, with closest opponent John Kasich coming in second with 15.7% of the vote.

Exit polling by Edison Research concluded that Trump's 2016 primary victory could be credited to support among white voters without a college degree, as well as support from moderate voters.[3]

Procedure

Delegates are proportionally allocated to candidates who received at least 10% of the total statewide vote.

Candidates

The following candidates have officially filed by the end of the filing deadline on October 27, 2023:[4]

Campaign

In January 2023, Trump selected outgoing New Hampshire Republican Party chair Stephen Stepanek to oversee his campaign's operations in the state.[9]

New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, who considered a presidential candidacy, established a "Live Free or Die committee",[10] though he announced on June 5 that he would not be running for the Republican nomination.[11]

Endorsements

Ron DeSantis
State Representatives
  • Jason Osborne, Rockingham's District 4 (2014–present); Majority Leader (2020–present)[12]
  • Lisa Smart, Belknap's District 2 (2022–present)[13]
  • Steven Bogert, Belknap's District 5 (2022–present)[14]
  • Mike Belcher, Carroll's District 4 (2022–present)[14]
  • Michael Costable Jr., Carroll's District 8 (2022–present)[14]
  • Troy Merner, Coos' District 1 (2022–present)[14]
  • Arnold Davis, Coos' District 2 (2022–present)[14]
  • Mike Ouelett, Coos' District 3 (2022–present)[14]
  • Seth King, Coos' District 4 (2022–present)[14]
  • Matthew Simon, Grafton's District 1 (2020–present)[15]
  • Matthew Coulon, Grafton's District 5 (2022–present)[14]
  • Rick Ladd, Grafton's District 5 (2022–present)[14]
  • Lex Berezhny, Grafton's District 11 (2022–present)[14]
  • Tom Mannion, Hillsborough's District 1 (2022–present)[14]
  • Dan Hynes, Hillsborough's District 2 (2022–present)[14]
  • Bob Healey, Hillsborough's District 12 (2022–present)[14]
  • Brian Seaworth, Hillsborough's District 12 (2022–present)[14]
  • Andrew Prout, Hillsborough's District 13 (2022–present)[14]
  • Ralph Boehm, Hillsborough's District 14 (2022–present)[14]
  • Brian Cole, Hillsborough's District 26 (2022–present) (previously endorsed Donald Trump)[16]
  • Leah Cushman, Hillsborough's District 28 (2022–present)[14]
  • Sheila Seidel, Hillsborough's District 29 (2022–present)[14]
  • Jim Creighton, Hillsborough's District 30 (2022–present)[14]
  • John Lewicke, Hillsborough's District 36 (2022–present)[14]
  • Alicia Lekas, Hillsborough's District 38 (2022–present)[14]
  • Tony Lekas, Hillsborough's District 38 (2022–present)[14]
  • Keith Ammon, Hillsborough's District 42 (2022–present)[14]
  • Lisa Post, Hillsborough's District 42 (2022–present)[14]
  • Bill King, Hillsborough's District 43 (2022–present)[14]
  • Travis Corcoran, Hillsborough's District 44 (2022–present)[14]
  • Lisa Mazur, Hillsborough's District 44 (2022–present)[14]
  • Yury Polozov, Merrimack's District 10 (2022–present)[14]
  • Cyril Aures, Merrimack's District 13 (2022–present)[14]
  • James Spillane, Rockingham's District 2 (2014–present) (previously endorsed Donald Trump)[17]
  • Michael Vose, Rockingham's District 5 (2022–present)[14]
  • Emily Phillips, Rockingham's District 7 (2022–present)[14]
  • Scott Wallace, Rockingham's District 8 (2022–present)[14]
  • Tony Piemonte, Rockingham's District 9 (2022–present)[14]
  • Erica Layon, Rockingham's District 13 (2022–present)[14]
  • Jodi Nelson, Rockingham's District 13 (2022–present)[14]
  • Katherine Prudhomme O'Brien, Rockingham's District 13 (2018–present)[15]
  • Tom Dolan, Rockingham's District 16 (2018–present)[15]
  • David Lundgren, Rockingham's District 16 (2022–present)[14]
  • Kristine Perez, Rockingham's District 16 (2022–present) (previously endorsed Donald Trump)[18]
  • Katelyn Kuttab, Rockingham's District 17 (2022–present)[14]
  • Bob Lynn, Rockingham's District 17 (2022–present)[14]
  • Daniel Popovici-Muller, Rockingham's District 17 (2022–present)[15]
  • Debra DiSimone, Rockingham's District 18 (2022–present) (previously endorsed Donald Trump)[16]
  • Jess Edwards, Rockingham's District 31 (2022–present)[14]
  • Mark Pearson, Rockingham's District 34 (2022–present)[14]
  • J.D. Bernardy, Rockingham's District 36 (2022–present)[14]
  • Kelly Potenza, Strafford's District 19 (2022–present)[14]
  • Skip Rollins, Sullivan's District 3 (2022–present)[14]
  • Walter Stapleton, Sullivan's District 6 (2022–present)[14]
Vivek Ramaswamy
State representatives
  • Richard Brown, Carroll's District 3 (2022–present)[19]
  • Fred Doucette, Rockingham's District 25 (2014–present); Deputy Majority Leader (2020–present)[20]
  • David Love, Rockingham's District 13 (2022–present) and District 6 (2018–2022)[19]
  • Mark McLean, Hillsborough's District 15 (2022–present), District 44 (2017–2022), and District 14 (2014–2016)[19]
  • Fred Plett, Hillsborough's District 29 (2022–present) and Hillsborough District 6 (2018–2022)[19]
  • David Rochefort, Grafton's District 1 (2022–present)[19]
  • Susan Vandecasteele, Rockingham's District 25 (2022–present) and District 8 (2020–2022)[19]
  • Peter Varney, Belknap's District 7 (2022–present)[19]
Donald Trump
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
State Representatives
Notable individuals

Maps

Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the New Hampshire Senate.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (1)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (1)
  No endorsement (13)
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the New Hampshire House of Representatives.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (63)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (46)
  Endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy (8)
  Endorsed Larry Elder (1) (withdrawn)
  No endorsement (81)
  Non-Republicans (201)

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Doug
Burgum
Chris
Christie
Ron
DeSantis
Nikki
Haley
Asa
Hutchinson
Vivek
Ramaswamy
Donald
Trump
Other/
Undecided[lower-alpha 4]
Margin
270 to Win November 14-17, 2023 November 17, 2023 2.0% 11.3% 7.7% 18.7% 0.3% 7.0% 45.7% 7.3% +27.0
FiveThirtyEight through November 14, 2023 November 17, 2023 1.9% 11.6% 7.7% 18.9% 0.5% 6.7% 44.7% 8.0% +25.8
RealClearPolitics November 9-14, 2023 November 17, 2023 2.0% 11.3% 7.7% 18.7% 0.3% 7.0% 45.7% 7.3% +27.0
Average 2.0% 11.4% 7.7% 18.8% 0.4% 6.9% 45.4% 7.5% +26.6
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 5]
Margin
of error
Doug
Burgum
Chris
Christie
Ron
DeSantis
Nikki
Haley
Asa
Hutchinson
Mike
Pence
Vivek
Ramaswamy
Tim
Scott
Donald
Trump
Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire Survey Center/CNN Nov 10–14, 2023 994 (LV) ± 3.1% 2% 14% 9% 20% 0% 8% 42% 3% 2%
Washington Post/Monmouth University Nov 9–14, 2023 606 (LV) ± 4.5% 2% 11% 7% 18% 1% 8% 3% 46% 0% 4%
Emerson College/WHDH Nov 10–13, 2023 465 (RV) ± 3.3% 1.5% 8.8% 7.2% 17.6% 0.3% 4.6% 2.2% 48.5% 9.3%
USA TODAY/Boston Globe/Suffolk University Sep 28 – October 2, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 1% 6% 10% 19% 1% 4% 4% 49%
CBS News/YouGov Sep 15–24, 2023 502 (LV) ± 5.4% 2% 8% 13% 11% 1% 2% 8% 5% 50% 0%[lower-alpha 6]
Saint Anselm College Sep 19–20, 2023 931 (LV) ± 3.2% 1% 10% 11% 15% 1% 1% 6% 3% 45% 0%[lower-alpha 7] 6%
Insider Advantage September 20, 2023 850 (LV) ± 3.36% 4% 10% 8% 14% 1% 1% 5% 5% 42% 1%[lower-alpha 8] 9%
University of New Hampshire Sep 14–18, 2023 1,006 (LV) ± 3.4% 1% 11% 10% 12% 0% 2% 13% 6% 39% 1%[lower-alpha 9] 6%
NMB Research Aug 25–31, 2023 800 (LV) 1% 8% 10% 10% 1% 4% 8% 5% 47% <3%[lower-alpha 10] 4%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates Aug 25–28, 2023 500 (LV) 2% 5% 11% 9% <1% 1% 9% 5% 48% <3%[lower-alpha 11] 9%
Echelon Insights[upper-alpha 1] Aug 15–17, 2023 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 14% 9% 3% 1% 3% 11% 7% 34% 3%[lower-alpha 12] 12%
Emerson College Aug 9–11, 2023 498 (RV) ± 4.9% 4% 9% 8% 4% 1% 3% 6% 49% 3%[lower-alpha 13] 13%
co/efficient Aug 5–7, 2023 862 (LV) ± 3.3% 4% 9% 9% 7% 1% 3% 5% 5% 43% 3%[lower-alpha 14] 13%
Manhattan Institute July 2023 603 (LV) 3% 11% 13% 7% 1% 4% 8% 7% 34% 3%[lower-alpha 15] 8%
National Research[upper-alpha 2] Jul 25–26, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 5% 8% 11% 3% 1% 2% 6% 8% 41% 15%
University of New Hampshire Jul 13–17, 2023 898 (LV) ± 3.3% 6% 6% 23% 5% 0% 1% 5% 8% 37% 1%[lower-alpha 16] 8%
National Research[upper-alpha 2] Jul 10–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 7% 15% 5% 1% 1% 4% 6% 39% 17%
American Pulse Jul 5–11, 2023 895 ± 3.2% 3% 10% 11% 3% 5% 5% 7% 48% 8%[lower-alpha 17]
Saint Anselm College Jun 21–23, 2023 494 (LV) ± 4.4% 2% 6% 19% 5% 2% 2% 2% 4% 47% 0%[lower-alpha 18] 10%
New Hampshire Journal/co-efficient Jun 14–16, 2023 904 (LV) ± 3.3% 9% 13% 3% 5% 3% 3% 47% 5% 10%
23% 49% 28%
National Research[upper-alpha 2] Jun 12–14, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 7% 12% 5% 2% 3% 3% 7% 44% 18%[lower-alpha 19]
National Research[upper-alpha 2] May 15–17, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 18% 3% 1% 1% 6% 1% 39% 32%[lower-alpha 20]
University of New Hampshire Apr 13–17, 2023 818 (LV) ± 3.4% 1% 22% 3% 0% 3% 3% 2% 42% 20%[lower-alpha 21] 4%
J.L Partners Apr 2–11, 2023 623 (LV) ± 3.9% 2% 18% 4% 2% 1% 1% 51% 19%[lower-alpha 22] 6%
33% 53% 13%
Saint Anselm College Mar 28–30, 2023 1,320 (RV) ± 4.0% 1% 29% 4% 1% 3% 1% 42% 19%[lower-alpha 23]
Emerson College Mar 3–5, 2023 384 (RV) ± 5.0% 17% 6% 4% 1% 58% 14%[lower-alpha 24]
co/efficient Jan 25–26, 2023 506 (LV) ± 4.35% 43% 42% 15%
26% 4% 3% 37% 13%[lower-alpha 25] 18%
University of New Hampshire Jan 19–23, 2023 349 (LV) ± 5.2% 42% 8% 1% 0% 30% 16%[lower-alpha 26] 3%
Neighborhood Research and Media Dec 5–13, 2022 434 (LV) ± 4.7% 33% 3% 32% 13% 19%
WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 3] Nov 11–13, 2022 401 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 37% 11%
November 8, 2022 2022 midterm elections
Saint Anselm College Aug 9–11, 2022 820 (RV) ± 3.4% 29% 3% 3% 1% 50% 4%[lower-alpha 27] 8%
WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 3] Aug 7–10, 2022 401 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 45% 10%
Neighborhood Research and Media[upper-alpha 4] Jul 5–8, 2022 475 (RV) ± 4.5% 22% 1% 1% 41% 3%[lower-alpha 28] 32%
University of New Hampshire Jun 16–20, 2022 318 (LV) ± 5.5% 39% 6% 9% 0% 37% 6%[lower-alpha 29] 3%
University of New Hampshire Oct 14–18, 2021 441 (LV) ± 4.7% 18% 6% 4% 43% 14%[lower-alpha 30] 10%
University of New Hampshire Jul 15–19, 2021 770 (LV) ± 3.5% 19% 6% 5% 43% 13%[lower-alpha 31] 10%
Saint Anselm College[upper-alpha 5] May 7–10, 2021 635 (RV) ± 3.9% 20% 7% 4% 0% 52% 7%[lower-alpha 32] 10%
Victory Insights Mar 5–11, 2021 400 (RV) 5% 3% 6% 52% 14%[lower-alpha 33]
21% 7% 18% 29%[lower-alpha 34]
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Praecones Analytica Nov 30 – December 2, 2020 624 (RV) ± 4.0% 7% 6% 2% 57% 19%[lower-alpha 35] 10%
12% 25% 3% 46%[lower-alpha 36] 14%

See also

Notes

  1. Johnson dropped out of the race on October 20.[5]
  2. Pence dropped out of the race on October 28.[6]
  3. Scott dropped out of the race on November 12.[7]
  4. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. Larry Elder & Will Hurd with 0%
  7. Larry Elder, Will Hurd & Perry Johnson with 0%
  8. Perry Johnson with 1%; Ryan Binkley, Larry Elder & Will Hurd with 0%
  9. Will Hurd with 1%; Larry Elder & "Other" with 0%
  10. Larry Elder and Will Hurd with 1%; Refused 1%
  11. Larry Elder and Will Hurd with 1%; Perry Johnson with <1%; Francis Suarez with 0%
  12. Will Hurd with 3%; Ryan Binkley, Larry Elder, and Francis Suarez with 0%
  13. Perry Johnson with 2%; Will Hurd with 1%
  14. "Someone else" with 3%
  15. "Someone else" with 2%; Francis Suarez with 1%; Larry Elder with 0%
  16. Will Hurd with 1%; Francis Suarez with 0%
  17. Calculated by subtracting the candidates' percentages from 100; the source does not give a number
  18. Suarez with 0%
  19. Undecided, Other & Refused
  20. Chris Sununu with 17%; "Undecided, Other & Refused" with 15%
  21. Chris Sununu with 12%; Liz Cheney with 4%; Mike Pompeo with 2%; Kristi Noem with 1%; John Bolton and Marco Rubio with 0%; "Other" with 1%
  22. Chris Sununu with 10%; Liz Cheney with 4%; Mike Pompeo and Glenn Youngkin with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  23. Chris Sununu with 14%; Liz Cheney with 2%; Mike Pompeo with 1%; Kristy Noem with 0%; Other with 2%.
  24. Chris Sununu with 7%; Mike Pompeo with 2%; Larry Hogan with 1%; Kristi Noem with 1%; "Someone else" with 3%
  25. Chris Sununu with 13%; Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  26. Liz Cheney, Chris Sununu and Larry Hogan with 4%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio with 1%; Mike Pompeo and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  27. Liz Cheney with 4%; Ted Cruz and Mike Pompeo with 1%; Larry Hogan with 0%
  28. Chris Sununu, Rand Paul and Mike Pompeo with 1%
  29. Ted Cruz, Kristi Noem, and Mike Pompeo with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%; "Other" with 3%
  30. Tom Cotton and Ted Cruz with 2%; Kristi Noem with 1%; Mike Pompeo with 0%; "Other" with 9%
  31. Ted Cruz and Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Mike Pompeo with 0%; "Other" with 9%
  32. Ted Cruz, Kristi Noem and Marco Rubio with 2%; Mitt Romney with 1%; Liz Cheney and John Kasich with 0%
  33. Mitt Romney with 13%; Ted Cruz with 1%; Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 0%
  34. Mitt Romney with 15%; Ted Cruz with 10%; Mike Pompeo with 3%; Kristi Noem with 1%
  35. Mitt Romney with 7%; Ted Cruz with 4%; Donald Trump Jr. with 3%; Tom Cotton and Marco Rubio with 2%; Tucker Carlson with 1%
  36. Donald Trump Jr. with 14%; Ted Cruz with 10%; Mitt Romney with 8%; Tom Cotton with 6%; Tucker Carlson and Marco Rubio with 4%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll commissioned by Republican Main Street Partnership
  2. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by American Greatness PAC, which supports Trump.
  3. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Club for Growth
  4. Poll sponsored by the Courageous Conservatives PAC
  5. Poll sponsored by the John Bolton Super PAC

References

  1. Enstrom, Kirk (November 15, 2023). "Here's when the New Hampshire 2024 primary will take place". WMUR.
  2. "New Hampshire Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. March 5, 2023. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  3. "New Hampshire Exit Polls". The New York Times. February 9, 2016. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 18, 2022.
  4. Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State
  5. Tabet, Alex (October 20, 2023). "Perry Johnson drops out of 2024 presidential race". NBC News. Retrieved November 3, 2023.
  6. Colvin, Jill (October 28, 2023). "Pence ends White House campaign after struggling to gain traction. 'This is not my time,' he says". Associated Press. Retrieved November 3, 2023.
  7. Vakil, Caroline (November 12, 2023). "Tim Scott suspends 2024 GOP primary bid". The Hill. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
  8. David Wildstein (October 31, 2023). "Hirsh Singh ends ludicrous White House bid". New Jersey Globe. Retrieved November 12, 2023.
  9. Kashinsky, Lisa (January 28, 2023). "Trump makes his first big move in New Hampshire". Politico. Retrieved October 31, 2023.
  10. Allen, Jonathan; Korecki, Natasha (February 8, 2023). "New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu takes a major step toward running for president". NBC News. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
  11. Maher, Kit; Bradner, Eric (June 5, 2023). "CNN Exclusive: New Hampshire GOP Gov. Sununu says he will not run for president in 2024". CNN. Retrieved June 5, 2023.
  12. "New Hampshire House majority leader endorses DeSantis". WHNT. May 4, 2023. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
  13. Ramirez, Isabella (May 16, 2023). "Four NH Republicans Flip Endorsements From Trump to DeSantis". The Daily Beast. Retrieved June 5, 2023.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 "Over 50 New Hampshire Legislators Endorse Governor Ron DeSantis for President". neverbackdown.org. May 16, 2023.
  15. 1 2 3 4 Scheckner, Jesse. "Ron DeSantis adds 5 more New Hampshire endorsements". Retrieved May 27, 2023.
  16. 1 2 "2 Republicans on DeSantis' N.H. endorsement list say they still back Trump". NBC News. May 16, 2023.
  17. Graham, Michael (June 1, 2023). "Trump Loses NHGOP Rep Endorsement to DeSantis Over Treatment of Fox News Host". NH Journal. Retrieved June 1, 2023.
  18. Scheckner, Jesse (May 26, 2023). "Ron DeSantis Adds 5 More New Hampshire Endorsements". Florida Politics. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  19. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Graham, Michael (May 23, 2023). "Ramaswamy Rolls Out 47 Granite State Endorsements". NH Journal.
  20. Lizza, Ryan; Bade, Rachael; Daniels, Eugene (April 6, 2023). "Playbook: A 'five-alarm warning' for the GOP". Politico. Retrieved April 6, 2023.
  21. Signan, Brooke (April 3, 2022). "Karoline Leavitt to join Trump super PAC as spokeswoman". Fox News. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
  22. Daughtery, Eric (August 8, 2023). "Trump kicks off New Hampshire 'Veterans for Trump Coalition' with Florida Rep. Brian Mast". Florida's Voice. Retrieved August 8, 2023.
  23. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 "President Donald J. Trump Announces New Hampshire Elected Leadership Team". Donald J. Trump. April 17, 2023. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
  24. Reid, Tim (January 27, 2023). "'Trump fatigue' in New Hampshire complicates 2024 White House bid". Reuters. Retrieved January 28, 2023.
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