Temperature and weather changes

Heat Waves and the average temperature have been increasing rapidly in Iraq. The mean temperature of Iraq has increased at a rate of .7 degrees celsius per century. These rising global temperatures have intensified water scarcity and desertification in Iraq.

The normal weather conditions of Iraq consist of a wet and dry season , however, climate change intensifies these seasons which leads to extreme drought and flooding events. The southern and central regions of Iraq show display patterns of decreased precipitation.^[6]

The changes in temperature and precipitation have led to an increase in dust and sand storms throughout Iraq.

Desertification, or the degradation of biologically productive land into infertile desert, is increasing in Iraq. A study monitoring the spatial land patterns of Iraq found that from 1990 to 2014 the amount of desert area increased by 5%.^[7]

Current/past Köppen climate classification map for Iraq for 1980–2016

Predicted Köppen climate classification map for Iraq for 2071–2100

Water resources

The Tigris-Euphrates River System and its given watershed account for 98% of surface water in Iraq, integral to the diverse ecosystem. The total catchment area (the area in which rainfall flows into bodies of water) is estimated to have a size of 430,000 Square Kilometers (km²), about 46% of the whole country.^[8] Iraq's waterbodies and river basins are uniquely vulnerable to the impacts of Climate Change in the 21st century. Through global warming, declining precipitation rates, altered distribution patterns, salinity, and evaporation.^[8] Iraq is facing acute water stress. With the decrease in precipitation rates, models have predicted that the available water will decrease while the demand for crop water increases.^[9] Studies have also found that increasing global temperatures are Iraq's most significant driver of water scarcity. The significant drops in annual rainfall will not only affect water levels and flow but will have detrimental impacts on agriculture and human health. According to studies, due to a combination of factors, water flow will decrease in Iraq by 25 to 50%.^[10]

As water levels fall, increasing salinity of the water supply has become a concern in southern Iraq, especially in Basra.^[11]

Economic impacts

Iraq's economy is extremely dependent on oil, which makes the nation more at risk to market volatility.^[14] Iraq’s agricultural sector accounts for approximately 5% of the nation's GDP and is the source of livelihood for about 25% of the population.^[3] Iraq's largest food-producing industries, agriculture, livestock husbandry, and fishing, have all been negatively affected by the effects of climate change.^[15] With reduced precipitation and scarce water, desertification, and soil degradation, both livelihoods and food security are put at risk.

Saddam Hussein

In 1992 during the Gulf War, Saddam Hussein ordered for the draining of the Mesopotamian Marshes of southern Iraq to punish the Marsh Arabs for revolting during the 1991 Iraqi Uprising against Saddam Hussein's government. Over 90% of the marshes was lost during Husseins Rules which has intensified the effects of climate change.^[19]

Activism

Due to the fragility of Iraq's government body, NGOs and Civil Society should play a huge role in fighting climate change in Iraq. In reality, climate activism is only just getting off the ground in recent years.^[20] During Saddam Husseins regime, activism and governmental accountability was completely stifled.^[21] Since then, in 2010, the government established the Civil Society Organization Law, a framework to register as a civil society organization.^[22] As of 2023, there are from 6,000 to 12,000 non-governmental organizations, 185 are environmental.^[21] Notable recent and current activism efforts include- Save Basra campaign against water pollution in 2018,^[23] Nature Iraq, Save the Tigris, and the Tishereen Movement. In the 21st century, from Human Rights Watch reports, environmental activists have been abducted, detained and prosecuted.^[24] Demonstrations and clashes over water rights have occurred in southern Iraq.^[25]

Private Sector Efforts

Private Sector efforts are both internal and external. USAID, an United States governmental agency investing in foreign development, has put in 150 Million to improve water quality, access and handling.^[26] The United Nations, alongside the government of Iraq, the United States and international donors created the Funding Facility for Stabilization (FFS) with over 1.4 billion dollars allocated for restoring essential services.^[27]

Controversies

Controversies surrounding climate change in Iraq include the 2018 Safe Basra protests in response to the ongoing water crisis and pollution.^[28][29] Three civilian protesters were killed and forty-seven were injured, according to the Human Rights Watch organization.^[30] Quoting this organization, the "interior ministry force used excessive and unnecessary force" in response to the climate protesters. Other controversies include the Marsh Arab Displacement (1970s to 2000s). In July 2022, electricity blackouts were exacerbated by attacks on power lines by militants, combined with a reduction in power supplied by Iran. Protests were held in Baghdad and Sadr City, where residents were left without air conditioning in 50C heat.^[31]

Arts and Media

Media plays a huge role in the dissemination of information throughout Iraq, expanding the conversation worldwide . Outlets such as Al-Jazeera English have published documentary films on the ongoing water crisis. As well, opportunities such as - peacebuilding series: Climate Change in Iraq - aims to engage with the youth.^[32]

Mitigation

With a complicated and controversial political climate tied in with the lack of voice given to civilians, mitigations and adaptation efforts are struggling to pick up steam. Many international organizations are developing mitigation approaches for localized and statewide use. Economic and political reform will in turn help developing strategies to fight climate change.^[33] With increasing oil prices, Iraqs wealth will grow and many are pushing the Iraqi government to use this to invest in mitigation strategies through budget allocations. As well, increasing the regional dialogue on climate change has begun, in the largest cities such as Baghdad.

Mitigation tactics including reducing methane. Seen by many groups, scientists, and activists as one of the most cost-effective and simplest ways to reduce climate change.^[34] As Iraq contributes heavily to methane emissions due to gas and oil production, the Iraqi government has aims to reduce the greenhouse gas emission by 15 percent by 2030.^[5] This goal developed out of the Paris Agreement and joint collaboration with the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP).

Adaptation

Adaptation methods look to adjusting and preparing for the impacts of climate change. To increase climate resilience in Iraq many initiatives have been launched in the last decade. Among these is the National Adaptation Plan (NAP). A three-year initiative to bolster technological, institutional and financial capabilities in order to guarantee future adaptation strategies are incorporated into the countries development.^[35] Agriculture and climate resilience projects have become significant, with international funding and backing in projects working towards addressing the crisis facing farmers across Iraq.^[36] The Swedish Government has promised over 10 million to build climate resilient agriculture strategies.^[37]