2024 Mexican general election
2 June 2024
Presidential election
 
Nominee Claudia Sheinbaum Xóchitl Gálvez TBD
Party MORENA PAN MC
Alliance Sigamos Haciendo Historia Fuerza y Corazón por México
Presidential results by state
Incumbent President

Andrés Manuel López Obrador
MORENA (JHH)


Senate
All 128 seats in the Senate of the Republic
65 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeader Current seats
MORENA Eduardo Ramírez Aguilar 59
PAN Julen Rementería 19
MC Clemente Castañeda Hoeflich 13
PRI Manuel Añorve Baños 11
PVEM Raúl Bolaños Cacho Cué 7
PT Geovanna Bañuelos de la Torre 6
PRD Miguel Ángel Mancera 3
Independent 9
Chamber of Deputies
All 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
251 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeader Current seats
MORENA Ignacio Mier Velazco 202
PAN Jorge Romero Herrera 113
PRI Rubén Moreira Valdez 67
PVEM Carlos Alberto Puente Salas 39
PT Alberto Anaya 35
MC Jorge Álvarez Máynez 28
PRD Luis Espinoza Cházaro 14

General elections are scheduled to be held in Mexico on 2 June 2024.[1][2] Voters will elect a new president to serve a six-year term, all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies and all 128 members of the Senate of the Republic. The members of the legislature elected on this date will be the first allowed to run for re-election in subsequent elections.

Article 83 of the Mexican Constitution prevents incumbent president Andrés Manuel López Obrador from seeking reelection (see sexenio).[3]

Electoral system

The president is elected by plurality voting.[4]

The 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies are elected by two methods: 300 are elected in single-member constituencies by plurality voting, with the remaining 200 elected by proportional representation in five multi-member districts, with seats allocated using the simple quotient and largest remainder method. No party is allowed to hold more than 300 seats.[5][6]

The 128 members of the Senate are also elected by two methods, with 96 elected in 32 three-seat constituencies based on the states and the remaining 32 elected in a single nationwide constituency by proportional representation. In the three-seat constituencies, two seats are allocated to the party receiving the highest number of votes and one seat to the party receiving the second-highest number of votes.[7]

Presidential candidates

Sigamos Haciendo Historia

Sigamos Haciendo Historia ("Let's Keep Making History") is the left-wing coalition encompassing the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), the Labor Party (PT) and the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM). It is the successor to Juntos Hacemos Historia.

Juntos Hacemos Historia required that prospective candidates resign their positions in government to stand for the nomination.[8] Marcelo Ebrard, secretary of foreign affairs and former head of government of Mexico City, was also the first to register as MORENA's candidate in the upcoming election.[9] Claudia Sheinbaum resigned as head of government of Mexico City and later confirmed her candidacy.[10] Former Governor of Tabasco and former Senator Adán Augusto López followed his colleagues and resigned as secretary of interior.[11] He maintained a lower profile and enjoyed less name recognition than the two candidates who led the polls.[12] The rest of the minor candidates on the Juntos Hacemos Historia coalition's list are former Deputy Gerardo Fernández Noroña from the Labour Party, former Senator and former Governor of Zacatecas Ricardo Monreal from MORENA and former Senator and former Governor of Chiapas Manuel Velasco from the Green Party. On 6 September 2023, Sheinbaum was confirmed as the nominee.[13]

Nominee

Fuerza y Corazón por México

Fuerza y Corazón por México ("Strength and Heart for Mexico"),[14] previously called the Frente Amplio por México ("Broad Front for Mexico") is the largest opposition coalition, a big tent composed of the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).

The confirmed candidates for the Frente Amplio were PRD Senator Xóchitl Gálvez; President of the Chamber of Deputies, former President of the Senate and former Secretary of the Interior Santiago Creel from the PAN; and PRI Senator and former Governor of Tlaxcala Beatriz Paredes. On 30 August 2023, after both her rivals had stepped down, Gálvez was confirmed as the Broad Front's presidential candidate.[15]

Nominee

Movimento Ciudadano

There was speculation that the Movimiento Ciudadano (MC) would join the Frente Amplio por México if Xóchitl Gálvez were selected as their candidate;[16] however, on 30 August 2023, party leader Dante Delgado ruled out joining the coalition.[17]

Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas, the municipal president of Monterrey, and Senator Patricia Mercado initially expressed interest in contending but later declined.[18][19] Marcelo Ebrard, after failing to be selected as the candidate for Juntos Hacemos Historia, was also courted by MC,[20] but on 12 November announced that he would not be seeking the nomination.[21]

Candidate registration for MC's presidential ticket took place on 12 November.[21] The first to register was Senator Indira Kempis Martínez, who had previously expressed interest in running for president.[22][23] She was followed by Samuel García Sepúlveda, who in late October had requested a leave of absence from his position as governor of Nuevo León in order to contend.[24][25] A further six hopefuls also registered: Ana María Moreno Hernández (Edomex), Lorena Romo Vite (Yucatán), Francisco Javier Rodriguez Espejel (Mexico City), Javier Gerardo Limones Cerniceros (Durango), Benjamín Antonio Russek de Garay (Edomex) and Ernesto Miguel Sánchez Ruiz (Edomex).[26] [27]

On 17 November, the party ruled seven of the filings inadmissible and designated Samuel García as the sole candidate.[28] In the early hours of December 2, García announced that he was to resume his role as Nuevo León governor. This decision effectively precludes his participation in the upcoming election for the presidency.[29] That same day, Movimiento Ciudadano summoned an extraordinary meeting on Monday for its National Commission of Conventions and Internal Processes; during this assembly, party members will deliberate and determine the new course of action to be followed.[30]

Nominee

  • TBD

Independents

The registration deadline for individuals wishing to run for president as independent candidates (i.e. without the backing of a registered party) expired on 7 September 2023.[31]

To formalize their candidacies, independent presidential hopefuls have to collect the signatures of voters endorsing them in an amount equal to 1% of the country's entire electoral roll – a total of over 966,000[32] – distributed equally across at least 17 of the nation's states, within a period of 120 days. Only then will the INE register them as independent candidates and will they be allowed to start campaigning.[33]

A total of 27 individuals informed the INE of their wish to run for the presidency as independent candidates before the deadline. As of 7 September, six of them had been given permission to begin collecting signatures; the remaining 21 were given 48 hours to correct shortcomings in the documentation they had presented.[34] The six green-lighted prospective independent candidates were Rocío Gabriela González Castañeda, Ulises Ernesto Ruiz Ortiz, César Enrique Asiain del Castillo, Hugo Eric Flores Cervantes, María Ofelia Edgar Mares and José Eduardo Verástegui Córdoba.[34] A further three – Fernando Mauricio Jiménez Chávez, Manuel Antonio Romo Aguirre, and Ignacio Benavente Torres – were announced on 27 September.[35][36]

Opinion polls

Polls have been carried out by various organizations and aggregated by the Americas Society – Council of the Americas and America Elige.

Presidential

By candidate

After primary elections per main coalitions

Fieldwork
date		 Polling
firm		 Sample No
one		 Undecided
Sheinbaum
SHH		 Gálvez
FCM		 García
MC		 Verástegui
Independent
10-13 November 2023 De las Heras Demotecnia[37] 1,400 66% 14% 6% 2% 6% 3%
19–28 October 2023 El Financiero[38] 1,620 46% 28% 8% ' ' 18%
16 October 2023 MEBA[39] 1,500 60.8% 26.7% 9.7% 2.8% ' '
8–12 October 2023 Polls MX[40] ' 57% 33% 8% ' ' '
4 October 2023 Universal[41] 1,200 50% 20% 7% 4% ' '
19–25 September 2023 Covarrubias y Asociados[42] 1,500 58% 17% 6% 0% 0% 13%
25 September 2023 De las Heras Demotecnia[43] 1,200 68% 14% 4% 2% 4% 8%
13 September 2023 Enkoll[44] 1,205 55% 22% 6% 0% 7% 10%
Prospective candidates
PollsterDateSheinbaum
(Morena)		 Ebrard
(Morena)		 Colosio
(MC)		 Monreal
(MC)		 Anaya
(PAN)		 Creel
(PAN)		 Tellez
(PAN)		 del Mazo
(PRI)		 Ruiz Massieu
(PRI)		 de la Madrid
(PRI)		 Noroña
(PT)		 Others
C&E June 202353.4% –– 5.7%– 34.1% –– – – ––
Mexico Elige June 202335.9% –8.4% –– 24.5% –– 7.9% – 17.3%2.1% Velasco, 2.1% De Hoyos
– 35.9%– –– – 19.5%– – 16.4% 22.1%1.8% Velasco, 1.3% Mancera, 1.8% De Hoyos, 1.3% Delgado
El FinancieroFebruary 202345% –9% –18% – –14% – – –N/A
El FinancieroOctober 202244% –9% –18% – –13% – – –N/A
ReformaAugust 202234% –28% –16% – –10% – – –N/A
ReformaMay 202233% –26% –13% – –7% – – –N/A
ReformaDecember 202131% –27% –16% – –10% – – –N/A
Alliances
Pollster Date Sample size Margin of error Lead
JHH FCM MC Others Undecided
CELAG 18 August 2023 2,000 2.19% 45.4% 18.2% 7.0% 3.5% 25.9% 27.2%

References

  1. ↑ "Elección Federal 2024". Instituto Nacional Electoral (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 November 2023.
  2. ↑ "ELECCIONES 2024: Proceso Electoral en números". Instituto Nacional Electoral. 13 November 2023. Retrieved 15 November 2023.
  3. ↑ Constitución Politica de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos. Artículo 83. 1917 (México).
  4. ↑ Mexico IFES
  5. ↑ "The Mexican Electoral System". Instituto Nacional Electoral. 22 April 2017. Retrieved 8 September 2023.
  6. ↑ "Constitution, Arts. 52 et seq" (PDF).
  7. ↑ Electoral system IPU
  8. ↑ "'Corcholatas' de Morena: ¿Es ilegal no renunciar a un cargo público y hacer campaña?". El Financiero (in Spanish). 8 June 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  9. ↑ "Elecciones 2024: Marcelo Ebrard se registra como 'aspirante' a candidatura de Morena". El Financiero (in Spanish). 14 June 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  10. ↑ "Elecciones 2024: Claudia Sheinbaum se registra como 'aspirante' a la candidatura de Morena". El Financiero (in Spanish). 16 June 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  11. ↑ "Adán Augusto 'se despide' en Chiapas: anuncia renuncia para ser candidato a la presidencia". El Financiero (in Spanish). 10 June 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  12. ↑ "Sheinbaum y Ebrard se disputan el liderato en Morena". El Financiero (in Spanish). 29 June 2023. Retrieved 8 July 2023.
  13. ↑ Sheridan, Mary Beth (7 September 2023). "Women win Mexican primaries; one will likely be first female president". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 7 September 2023.
  14. ↑ "PAN, PRI y PRD amarran coalición Fuerza y Corazón por México para 2024". Expansión Política (in Spanish). 21 November 2023. Retrieved 21 November 2023.
  15. ↑ "Mexico opposition picks businesswoman Galvez as presidential candidate". RFI. 31 August 2023. Retrieved 31 August 2023.
  16. ↑ "Movimiento Ciudadano da 'espaldarazo' a Xóchitl Gálvez; podría unirse a la oposición". El Financiero (in Spanish). 7 July 2023. Retrieved 11 July 2023.
  17. ↑ "Samuel García tantea la candidatura de Movimiento Ciudadano a la presidencia: "¿Quieren un presidente joven?"". 30 August 2023.
  18. ↑ "Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas se 'baja' para 2024: 'Necesito madurar y no dividiré a la oposición'". El Financiero (in Spanish). 4 September 2023. Retrieved 26 October 2023.
  19. ↑ Morales, Por Omar Tinoco (30 August 2023). "Patricia Mercado se descartó para 2024 pero considera que tres mujeres pelearán la presidencia". infobae (in European Spanish). Retrieved 28 September 2023.
  20. ↑ "Filtran reunión de Marcelo Ebrard con Movimiento Ciudadano para ser su candidato" [They filter Marcelo Ebrard's meeting with the Citizen Movement to be their candidate]. informador.mx (in Spanish). 6 September 2023. Retrieved 8 November 2023.
  21. 1 2 "Marcelo Ebrard da un no definitivo a MC; rechaza inscripción a su proceso rumbo a 2024". El Universal. 12 November 2023. Retrieved 12 November 2023.
  22. ↑ "Indira Kempis se suma a las aspirantes a la Presidencia en 2024". 29 August 2023.
  23. ↑ "Senadora Indira Kempis denuncia amenazas de MC, tras registrarse como aspirante a la Presidencia". El Universal. 12 November 2023. Retrieved 12 November 2023.
  24. ↑ "El gobernador Samuel García pide licencia para buscar candidatura presidencial". Forbes México (in Spanish). 23 October 2023. Retrieved 26 October 2023.
  25. ↑ "Samuel García se registra como precandidato de MC a la Presidencia: 'Vamos a hacer historia'". El Financiero (in Spanish). 12 November 2023. Retrieved 13 November 2023.
  26. ↑ "Samuel García no fue el único: se registraron en total ocho aspirantes en Movimiento Ciudadano". Proceso. 13 November 2023. Retrieved 13 November 2023.
  27. ↑ "MC define fechas para la selección de sus candidatos a las elecciones de 2024". La Silla Rota. 23 September 2023. Retrieved 13 November 2023.
  28. ↑ "Samuel García único precandidato de Movimiento Ciudadano a la presidencia". MVS Noticias (in Mexican Spanish). 17 November 2023. Retrieved 18 November 2023.
  29. ↑ "Samuel García is back as Nuevo León governor, ending 2024 campaign". Mexico News Daily. 2 December 2023. Retrieved 2 December 2023.
  30. ↑ "Convoca MC a Convención Nacional el lunes para definir sobre nueva precandidatura presidencial". Latinus (in Mexican Spanish). 2 December 2023. Retrieved 2 December 2023.
  31. ↑ "Candidaturas Independientes 2024". Instituto Nacional Electoral. Retrieved 8 September 2023.
  32. ↑ ""Dios decidirá": 966 mil firmas separan a Eduardo Verástegui de ser candidato presidencial". Animal Político. 1 September 2023. Retrieved 8 September 2023.
  33. ↑ "Requisitos para poder obtener la constancia de registro como candidata o candidato independiente". Instituto Nacional Electoral. Retrieved 8 September 2023.
  34. 1 2 "Tarjeta informativa: Recibe INE manifestación de intención de 27 aspirantes a candidaturas independientes para la Presidencia de la República". Instituto Nacional Electoral. 8 September 2023. Retrieved 8 September 2023.
  35. ↑ "INE expide constancias a candidaturas independientes". Instituto Nacional Electoral. 27 September 2023. Retrieved 28 September 2023.
  36. ↑ Martínez, Fabiola (28 September 2023). "Pasan 9 a siguiente fase por la vía independiente a la Presidencia". La Jornada. Retrieved 28 September 2023.
  37. ↑ "Encuesta Nacional Noviembre 2023". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 21 November 2023. Retrieved 21 November 2023.
  38. ↑ "Encuesta: Encuesta EF: Estas son las ventajas y desventajas de Sheinbaum y Gálvez como posibles candidatas". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 31 October 2023. Retrieved 31 October 2023.
  39. ↑ "Encuesta: Se marca amplia distancia". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 15 October 2023. Retrieved 15 October 2023.
  40. ↑ "Encuesta: Claudia Sheinbaum y Morena sacan más de 20 puntos a Xóchitl Gálvez rumbo a 2024". Infobae (in Spanish). 15 October 2023. Retrieved 15 October 2023.
  41. ↑ "Encuesta: Sheinbaum arrasa en preferencia electoral; saca 30 puntos a Xóchitl". El Universal (in Spanish). 3 October 2023. Retrieved 3 October 2023.
  42. ↑ "Covarrubias y Asociados estima 6% para Samuel, 17% para Xóchitl y 64% para Claudia". SinEmbargo MX (in Spanish). 3 October 2023. Retrieved 3 October 2023.
  43. ↑ "Estudio nacional de opinión pública". 25 September 2023.
  44. ↑ "Rumbo a la presidencia de la república" (PDF). Enkoll. 13 September 2023.
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