A process of cabinet formation is taking place following the Dutch general election of 22 November 2023.

Background

The previous Fourth Rutte cabinet consisted of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Democrats 66 (D66), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and Christian Union. This cabinet experienced a crisis over asylum policy, as VVD wanted a stricter migration policy and was prepared to drop the cabinet, while for the Christian Union, the total package of measures went too far. The cabinet then offered its resignation on 7 July 2023. A few days later, Mark Rutte, VVD leader and Prime Minister since 2010, announced that he would not continue as party leader.[1]

Before the elections, GroenLinks (GL) and Labour Party (PvdA) decided to enter the elections together as GroenLinks–PvdA (GL-PvdA) with European Commissioner Frans Timmermans as party leader. The goal was to become the largest party and participate in a cabinet.[2] After much hesitation, Pieter Omtzigt, who split from CDA in 2021, decided to form a new party, New Social Contract (NSC).[3]

Campaign

A graphical break-down of the seats in the House of Representatives by party
Composition of the House based on preliminary results:
  SP: 5
  PvdD: 3
  Denk: 3
  GL-PvdA: 25
  Volt: 2
  D66: 9
  CU: 3
  NSC: 20
  VVD: 24
  CDA: 5
  BBB: 7
  JA21: 1
  SGP: 3
  PVV: 37
  FvD: 3

The Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB) became the largest party in the Dutch provincial elections of March 2023, and therefore in the 2023 Dutch Senate election. The party maintained its lead in the polls until the fall of the cabinet, though subsequently lost this position, partly because the nitrogen crisis was rarely discussed during the campaign. The leading position in the polls then alternated between VVD, NSC and GL-PvdA. PVV party leader Geert Wilders' more constructive tone and a successful debate at SBS6 contributed to his party taking the lead in a Peil.nl poll in the last week. This stimulated strategic voting on both the left and the right to respectively prevent or force a right-wing cabinet, from which GL-PvdA and PVV particularly benefited.[4]

During the campaign, possible coalition collaborations were discussed. GL-PvdA, D66, CDA and smaller parties continued to exclude the PVV. With the arrival of Dilan Yeşilgöz as party leader, the VVD did not rule out governing with the PVV for the first time since 2010. At the end of the campaign she partly reversed this, saying that she did not want to be in a cabinet in which Wilders was the largest. During the campaign, Omtzigt remained vague about possible cooperation with the PVV. Towards the end indicated that he was not in favour, as he viewed some of the PVV's positions as contrary to the constitution.

Election results

The PVV became the largest party in the elections with 37 seats. The coalition parties of the incumbent cabinet fell from 78 to 41 seats.

Scout Van Strien

Gom van Strien (PVV), 2014

On 24 November 2023, PVV Senator Gom van Strien was selected as scout.[5] Two days after the appointment, it became public that Van Strien was suspected of fraud. On 27 November, before meeting any party leaders, he resigned as scout.[6]

Scout Plasterk

Ronald Plasterk (PvdA), 2015

On 28 November 2023, former PvdA-Minister and Telegraaf columnist Ronald Plasterk was appointed as scout as proposed by Wilders.[7]

Coalition preferences

Wilders said he wanted to form a cabinet and proposed talks with VVD, NSC and BBB.[8] BBB leader Caroline van der Plas also prefered this combination "if Geert [Wilders] moves along a bit".[9] Yeşilgöz announced directly before Van Strien was appointed that her party was not willing to join a cabinet because of its defeat, but would provide confidence and supply to a centre-right cabinet.[10] Omtzigt said to Plasterk that he was not ready to negotiate with the PVV because of concerns around rule of law. He proposed that an informateur would explore which solutions parties wanted for problems.[11]

Timmermans called a cabinet with GL-PvdA and PVV a "no-go" and considered it "extremely unlikely" that there would be an opportunity for GL-PvdA to join a cabinet.[12]

Notes

    References

    1. ↑ "Rutte stopt als partijleider VVD en kondigt vertrek aan uit politiek" [Rutte resigns as pary leader VVD and announces departure from politics]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 10 July 2023. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
    2. ↑ "PvdA en GroenLinks met één lijst de verkiezingen in, leden stemmen massaal voor" [PvdA and GroenLinks enter the elections with one list, members vote en masse in favor]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 17 July 2023. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
    3. ↑ "Omtzigt doet mee aan verkiezingen met eigen partij: Nieuw Sociaal Contract" [Omtzigt participates in the elections with own party: New Social Contract]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 20 August 2023. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
    4. ↑ Kester, Jeroen; Lubbe, Rozemarijn (20 November 2023). "Ruime helft GroenLinks-PvdA-kiezers stemt strategisch op die partij: 'Risico op rechts kabinet kleiner'" [More than half of GroenLinks-PvdA voters strategically vote for that party: 'Risk of a right-wing cabinet is smaller']. EenVandaag (in Dutch). Retrieved 28 November 2023.
    5. ↑ "PVV-senator Gom van Strien aangesteld als verkenner voor de kabinetsformatie" [PVV-senator appointed as scout for cabinet formation]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 24 November 2023. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
    6. ↑ "Verkenner Van Strien (PVV) stopt ermee" [Scout Van Strien (PVV) resigns]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 27 November 2023. Retrieved 27 November 2023.
    7. ↑ "Ronald Plasterk aangewezen als verkenner" [Ronald Plasterk designated as scout]. Tweede Kamer (in Dutch). 28 November 2023. Retrieved 28 November 2023.
    8. ↑ "Wilders wil met vier partijen 'nieren proeven'" [Wilders wants to gauge the opinions of four parties]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting. 29 November 2023. Retrieved 29 November 2023.
    9. ↑ "Van der Plas ziet coalitie met PVV wel zitten" [Van der Plas is interested in a coalition with the PVV]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 23 November 2023. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
    10. ↑ "Fractievoorzitter Yesilgöz: VVD niet in kabinet, mogelijk wel gedoogsteun" [Party leader Yesilgöz: VVD not in cabinet, possibly with confidence and supply]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 24 November 2023. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
    11. ↑ "NSC-leider Pieter Omtzigt wil eerst praten over oplossen van problemen" [NSC-leader Pieter Omtzigt wants to talk about solving problems first]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 29 November 2023. Retrieved 29 November 2023.
    12. ↑ Van Erven, Ronald (29 November 2023). "Timmermans: GroenLinks-PvdA past bescheidenheid, samenwerken met PVV uitgesloten" [Timmermans: GroenLinks-PvdA requires modesty, cooperation with PVV is excluded]. NRC (in Dutch).
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